Friday, September 01, 2006

Derretimento de geleiras deve provocar o desaparecimento de cidades

ECOLOGIA :

Vindas das mais variadas fontes, as notícias sobre o futuro da humanidade não são nada boas. Não há mais volta: mesmo que mudemos radicalmente nossa forma de relação com o planeta a partir de hoje, o prejuízo causado por nossas ações predatórias já atingiu um nível tamanho que o derretimento das geleiras deve provocar o desaparecimento de todas as cidades ao nível do mar no máximo até o final deste século. Essa triste previsão está num artigo publicado há pouco mais de um mês pelo cientista britânico James Lovelock, autor da famosa Teoria de Gaia (segundo a qual a Terra assemelha-se a um organismo vivo, com mecanismos para auto-regular suas funções).
Ainda segundo Lovelock, a elevação da temperatura em até 8ºC nas regiões temperadas e 5ºC nos trópicos vai provocar também, antes de 2100, impactos desastrosos no equilíbrio ecológico, como a extinção maciça de espécies vegetais e animais e o desaparecimento de vastas áreas selvagens como a Floresta Amazônica, decretando o fim da maior parte da vida na Terra, com a morte de milhões, talvez bilhões de pessoas. Na opinião do cientista, governos sérios e responsáveis deveriam começar a desenvolver cartilhas com orientações aos sobreviventes sobre como lidar com as difíceis condições de vida neste futuro sombrio.
A reação do mundo a um alerta como esse, vindo de um dos mais reconhecidos cientistas do nosso tempo, deveria ser de comoção popular. Deveríamos parar tudo e começar a centrar nossos esforços em formas de ao menos minimizar os tenebrosos efeitos anunciados. Mas nada disso aconteceu e tudo segue normalmente como se essa fosse apenas mais uma notícia trivial e corriqueira. Um jornal publica o artigo, outro dá uma nota curta e seca e assim vamos tocando nossas vidas normalmente.
Essa atitude seria compreensível se a visão de Lovelock fosse apenas uma no meio de outras conflitantes. Poderíamos confortavelmente acusá-lo de louco, exagerado, catastrófico. Mas não é o caso. Já não são levadas a sério as cada vez mais raras correntes científicas que colocam em dúvida o fato de que a Terra sofre um processo de aquecimento acelerado, dificilmente reversível.
Segundo o Instituto Goddard de Estudos Espaciais, da Nasa, 2005 foi o ano mais quente desde o início dos registros climáticos modernos, em 1890. E, pior, de acordo com o instituto, todos os cinco anos mais quentes durante este período ocorreram na última década, mostrando clara tendência de aquecimento global. Um representante do órgão declarou à imprensa que, usando medições indiretas que vão a um passado ainda mais remoto, o ano passado foi provavelmente o mais quente dos últimos milhares de anos. Mais uma notícia que lemos e viramos a página, sem dar muita atenção.
Mais: um aumento de 3ºC na temperatura média da Groelândia duplicou a quantidade de água que suas geleiras vêm derramando no Oceano Atlântico, segundo recentes pesquisas do Laboratório de Propulsão a Jato e do Instituto de Tecnologia da Califórnia. Há registros de diminuição das geleiras no Himalaia, nos Andes, no Monte Kilimanjaro, e a única estação de esqui da Bolívia, Chacaltaya, fechou porque sua neve está acabando.
Acha pouco? A lista é longa, o espaço de um artigo é limitado. O diretor da Pesquisa Antártica do Reino Unido, Chris Rapley, disse, em janeiro passado, durante reunião da Sociedade Americana para o Avanço da Ciência, que algumas partes da camada de gelo da Antártida começaram a derreter em um ritmo assustadoramente intenso e anormal. Rapley afirmou que, há apenas cinco anos, a Antártida era considerada como um gigante adormecido em termos de mudança climática. "O gigante despertou e é melhor que se preste atenção nele", disse o cientista. Ninguém parece muito preocupado. A humanidade finge não ver o que está acontecendo.
Enquanto isso, James Hansen, o principal especialista em mudança climática da Nasa, denuncia uma tentativa do governo dos EUA de silenciá-lo. A campanha começou depois de um discurso proferido em dezembro passado, quando Hansen pediu a rápida redução na emissão dos gases estufa, relacionados ao aquecimento global. Segundo ele, diretores da Nasa deram ordem aos responsáveis pelas relações públicas do órgão para revisar os textos de suas futuras conferências, suas publicações no sítio do instituto na Internet e para controlar os pedidos de entrevistas de jornalistas.
Há caminhos que podem ser trilhados se a humanidade realmente abrir os olhos para a questão. Uma série de ações voltadas ao fomento de fontes de energia renováveis, em um livro elaborado por 250 analistas internacionais, foi apresentada recentemente pelo diretor-executivo da Agência Internacional da Energia, Claude Mandil. Aparecem, entre elas, as energias produzidas pelo vento, o sol, as fontes geotérmicas e os oceanos. Ótimo, não? Não, se o raciocínio que só encontra sentido na produção otimizada e no lucro continuar reinando absoluto. Segundo o próprio Mandil, o grande problema de suas propostas é o custo econômico alto para trazê-las para a prática, o que, segundo diz, inviabiliza suas iniciativas e faz os governos se mostrarem reticentes a elas.
Por que é que a gente é assim? Por que fechamos os olhos para estes alertas, apesar de estar claro que é apenas uma questão de tempo para as conseqüências nefastas de essas previsões começarem a afetar brutalmente nossas vidas e, principalmente, as vidas de nossos filhos e netos? Acho que a nossa espécie, apesar da capacidade relativamente bem desenvolvida de prever o futuro, é menos competente na hora de mudar suas atitudes, mesmo quando colocada contra a parede. Enquanto não superarmos esta limitação, não haverá espaço para a esperança.

Redação 360
Danilo Di Giorgi

Fonte:
www.msn.com.br/esportes/ecoturimo/extra2

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